Ghana’s financial markets recorded a mixed performance during the review period, with developments across the fixed income, currency, and equity markets reflecting shifting investor sentiment, easing liquidity pressures in parts of the bond market, and continued strong momentum on the Ghana Stock Exchange despite a sharp drop in trading activity.

Overall, the markets showed a combination of weakening demand in some segments and resilience in others, particularly equities, where strong year-to-date gains continued to support investor confidence.

However, the cedi’s depreciation against major currencies and reduced secondary market activity in fixed income trading signalled underlying caution among market participants.

Fixed Income Market

In the Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM), activity in the primary Treasury bill auction reflected a notable decline in investor demand compared to the previous week.

Total bids fell sharply from GH₵7.37 billion to GH₵4.16 billion. Despite this decline, the government still managed to exceed its target, raising GH₵4.16 billion against a planned GH₵3.37 billion, resulting in an oversubscription rate of 23.47%.

Investor participation, however, was uneven across maturities. The government accepted 96.66% of the 91-day Treasury bill, 70.42% of the 182-day bill, and 59.07% of the 364-day instrument, indicating stronger appetite for shorter-term securities.

Yields also edged upward across all tenors, reflecting slightly higher borrowing costs for the state.

The 91-day Treasury bill rate rose by 14 basis points to 5.87%, the 182-day bill increased by 10 basis points to 7.79%, while the 364-day bill climbed by 11 basis points to 12.93%.

Looking ahead, government is targeting GH₵5.67 billion in the next auction as it continues to manage short-term financing needs.

Secondary market trading slows sharply

Trading activity on the secondary leg of the fixed income market recorded a significant contraction during the week under review. Volumes declined by 31.8% to GHS 6.03 billion, reflecting reduced investor turnover and repositioning.

Treasury bills dominated activity, accounting for 53.31% of total trades. Domestic debt exchange programme (DDEP) bonds followed with 40.51%, while sell-buy-back transactions contributed 6.04%.

Corporate bonds and new Government of Ghana notes remained marginal at 0.14% and 0.01% respectively.

The decline in secondary market activity suggests a more cautious trading environment, with investors possibly holding positions in anticipation of clearer macroeconomic signals.

Cedi weakens further against major currencies

On the foreign exchange market, the Ghana cedi continued its downward trajectory against major international currencies.

The local currency depreciated by 0.85% against the US dollar, closing at GH₵11.39 to the dollar, bringing its year-to-date depreciation to 8.25%.

Against the British pound, the cedi weakened by 1.91% to settle at GH₵15.21, with a year-to-date loss of 7.59%.

It also lost 1.25% against the euro, closing at GH₵13.03, reflecting a year-to-date depreciation of 5.80%.

Indicative open market rates showed slightly weaker levels, with the cedi trading at GH₵11.58 to the dollar, GH₵15.34 to the pound, and GH₵13.25 to the euro, highlighting persistent pressure in the retail foreign exchange market.

GSE maintains strong gains despite slowdown

In contrast to the mixed performance in fixed income and forex markets, the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) continued to post strong gains, although trading activity declined significantly.

The GSE Composite Index closed the week at 14,689.01 points, maintaining a robust year-to-date return of 67.49%.

Market performance was largely driven by gains in IIL, TOTAL, GCB, and CLYD, which provided strong upward momentum for the index.

Among the top gainers, IIL rose by 12.50% to close at GH₵0.18, recording a remarkable year-to-date gain of 260.00%.

TOTAL increased by 10.00% to GH₵39.60, although it remains down 1.74% year-to-date.

GCB gained 5.13% to close at GH₵41.00, reflecting a strong year-to-date performance of 103.88%, while CLYD advanced by 5.08% to GH₵3.10, with an exceptional year-to-date gain of 573.91%.

On the lagging side, GGBL slipped by 0.17% to GH₵11.97, FML declined by 0.30% to GH₵13.30, SIC fell by 0.33% to GH₵6.01, MTNGH lost 0.62% to close at GH₵6.42, while ETI recorded the steepest drop of 3.08% to GH₵2.20, though it still maintains a strong year-to-date gain of 185.71%.

Market activity also weakened sharply, with trading volumes plunging by 67.94% from 43.21 million shares to 13.85 million shares.

The total value traded stood at approximately GH₵43.58 million.

Market analysts expect financial stocks and the ICT sector to remain key drivers of the index in the coming week, as investors continue to position for earnings and macroeconomic developments.