S&P Global has flagged Ghana’s growing dependence on gold exports as a risk to the country’s external position, warning that the concentration of export earnings in the precious metal could leave the economy increasingly exposed to swings in global commodity prices.

The international credit rating agency, however, said Ghana’s economy had demonstrated resilience despite the ongoing global economic downturn linked to the Middle East war, with strong growth in key sectors and improving investor sentiment supporting the recovery.

In a recent report published on its website, S&P Global said gold exports now accounted for more than 60 per cent of Ghana’s total export receipts, increasing the country’s susceptibility to terms-of-trade shocks.

It said cocoa accounted for nearly 13% of total exports, while crude oil contributed close to nine per cent.

“Together, these three commodities account for more than 55% of total current account receipts,” the agency said.

The warning comes against the backdrop of significant improvements in Ghana’s external position, which S&P Global attributed partly to the country’s ability to take advantage of high gold prices and formalise small-scale mining production.

According to the agency, those developments helped push Ghana’s current account into a record surplus of 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025.

Economy expands 6.7%

Despite the external risks, S&P Global said the Ghanaian economy remained resilient, expanding by 6.7% in the first half of 2026.

It attributed the growth to a strong services sector and a recovery in oil and gas production.

The agency noted that business confidence had softened in April, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declining to 50.3 from 51.4.

However, it said the broader economic indicators continued to point to strong domestic activity.

The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector, in particular, recorded year-on-year growth of nearly 31% in the second quarter of 2026 and contributed more than 40% to overall GDP growth.

S&P Global also cited strong gold production as an important driver of domestic economic activity, saying it continued to support the disposable incomes of small-scale miners and, in turn, underpin domestic demand.

Economic activity strengthens

The Bank of Ghana’s Composite Index of Economic Activity also recorded significant growth during the period under review.

According to S&P Global, the index increased by 13.4% year-on-year in May 2026, following a 12.6% expansion in March.

The improvement was supported by stronger activity in trade, tourism and industrial production.

The agency said the developments pointed to improving domestic and external investor sentiment.

It attributed the improvement partly to lower exchange-rate volatility and the finalisation of Ghana’s comprehensive debt restructuring programme.

Fiscal position improves

On Ghana’s fiscal position, S&P Global pointed to fiscal rules and tighter enforcement of procurement oversight introduced over the past 18 months as measures that could help strengthen public finances.

It said the measures should support improvements in fiscal management and help the country strengthen its fiscal position.

The rating agency, however, noted that Ghana had historically struggled to maintain fiscal prudence through political and economic cycles.

“It has participated in 18 IMF programmes and, in the mid-2000s, benefited from debt relief of nearly US$7.5 billion through the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief initiative,” it said.

The agency’s assessment places Ghana’s recent fiscal reforms and external-sector gains within a broader history of repeated fiscal pressures and adjustment programmes.

Gold gains and vulnerability

S&P Global’s assessment highlights the dual effect of Ghana’s recent gold performance.

On one hand, high gold prices and increased formalisation of small-scale mining have strengthened export earnings and contributed to the improvement in the current account.

On the other hand, the growing share of gold in the country’s exports means that a significant change in international gold prices or demand could have a greater effect on Ghana’s external position.

The agency therefore noted that while the country had benefited from favourable gold prices, the concentration of export receipts in a few commodities remained an important source of vulnerability.

For Ghana, the challenge is therefore not only to sustain the gains from gold but also to broaden the sources of export and foreign-exchange earnings, while maintaining the improvements in fiscal management and economic activity highlighted by the rating agency.