The Government raised approximately GH¢120.2 billion from the Treasury bill market during the first four months of 2026, according to data from the Bank of Ghana. The amount mobilised came against total investor bids of about GH¢181.5 billion, reflecting a cautious and calculated borrowing approach by the Treasury as it sought to balance financing needs with efforts to manage borrowing costs.

The Treasury bill market experienced two distinct phases during the period under review. From January to the middle of March, investor appetite remained exceptionally strong, resulting in 11 consecutive oversubscribed auctions.

During this period, investors consistently submitted bids far above the government’s target amounts, highlighting robust liquidity conditions and strong confidence in short-term government securities.

The peak of investor demand occurred in mid-February when total bids reached GH¢22.67 billion against a target of GH¢6.42 billion. The oversubscription underscored the attractiveness of Treasury bills at the time, particularly as yields remained relatively high compared to later months.

However, market conditions shifted noticeably from late March into April. As yields on Treasury bills declined sharply, investor demand weakened considerably, leading to six straight undersubscribed auctions. One of the most significant shortfalls was recorded during Tender 2002, where investors submitted bids worth GH¢5.31 billion against a target of GH¢7.57 billion, leaving the auction nearly 30 percent below target.

The changing market dynamics also affected investor preferences across the various tenors. At the beginning of the year, longer-dated instruments attracted stronger demand, with the 364-day Treasury bill recording bids of about GH¢15.18 billion in January. Investors appeared willing to lock in higher yields for extended periods.

By the end of April, however, demand for the same instrument had dropped sharply to approximately GH¢3.12 billion. The decline suggested that investors became less interested in committing funds for longer durations as interest rates fell.

In the final April auction, demand was concentrated mainly at the shorter end of the market. The 91-day bill attracted bids worth GH¢2.8 billion, with GH¢2.7 billion accepted by the Treasury. The 182-day bill received GH¢717.6 million in bids, of which GH¢664.4 million was accepted.

Meanwhile, the 364-day bill attracted GH¢960.1 million in bids, but only GH¢522.5 million was accepted.

The sharp decline in interest rates played a central role in the weakening investor demand. At the start of the year, the average yield on the 91-day Treasury bill stood at 11.12 percent, while the 364-day bill offered 12.93 percent. By the end of April, yields had dropped significantly, with the 91-day bill falling to 4.92 percent and the 364-day bill easing to 10.20 percent.

Analysts say the government took advantage of strong liquidity conditions in the first quarter to front-load its borrowing programme while rates remained relatively elevated. As yields declined and investor demand softened, the Treasury adopted a more disciplined issuance strategy by rejecting a sizeable portion of bids to avoid locking in borrowing at unfavourable levels.

Overall, developments in the Treasury bill market point to a deliberate strategy aimed at balancing the government’s financing requirements with prudent debt and interest rate management within an evolving market environment.