Ghana’s sovereign credit rating has been reaffirmed at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings, reflecting a gradual economic recovery tempered by ongoing fiscal and external risks.

According to the agency, stronger growth and rising exports—especially gold—have boosted foreign exchange reserves, helping to stabilise the country’s external position. Recent fiscal reforms and tighter spending controls are also expected to keep deficits more manageable than in the lead-up to the 2022 debt crisis.

Even so, risks remain. S&P cautioned that Ghana is still vulnerable to global shocks, particularly tensions in the Middle East that could push up fuel and transport costs. Such pressures may feed into inflation, raise borrowing costs, and weaken investor sentiment.

On the external front, Ghana’s performance has improved significantly. Strong commodity prices and export earnings helped generate a current account surplus of over $9 billion in 2025, while foreign reserves reached record highs.

However, the agency warned that a downturn in prices for key exports—such as gold, cocoa, and oil—could reverse some of these gains.

Encouragingly, progress on debt restructuring has eased immediate financial pressures, with most targeted agreements either completed or nearing finalisation. This has supported broader macroeconomic stability.

Still, the outlook is not without concern. Debt servicing costs remain high and are expected to absorb a large share of government revenues. S&P also highlighted structural weaknesses in public financial management and the risk that fiscal discipline could weaken, especially around election periods.

Although inflation has moderated, it is expected to edge higher in 2026 due to external factors. The Ghanaian cedi, however, has begun to stabilise after a period of volatility, aided by stronger foreign exchange inflows.

S&P said Ghana’s rating could improve if the government sustains reforms, lowers debt burdens, and strengthens its external buffers. On the downside, any reversal in reforms, fiscal slippage, or delays in debt restructuring could put the rating under pressure.