The results of a new poll conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at Kumasi Technical University (KTU), suggest a potential run-off in the 2024 presidential elections.
However, the report highlights that a one-touch victory is possible if, in the two weeks leading to December 7, political parties guard against reverse invasion by consolidating their gains in leading regions while working to improve their standing in other regions.
Survey scope and analysis
The survey collected 100,059 responses, of which 99,355 individuals across 4,272 communities in all 276 constituencies were analyzed.
Data collection was conducted face-to-face by well-trained enumerators using Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) forms.
Poll results
The poll results show Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), leading with 49.1% of voter support.
He is followed by former President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), who garnered 45.8%.
Other candidates, including Nana Kwame Bediako (2.2%) and John Allan Kyeremateng (1.2%), alongside the remaining candidates, account for a combined total of 5.1% of the vote.
The report emphasizes that all other candidates combined obtained only 1.7% of the votes, indicating that the election could be decided in the first round, with the NPP having a higher likelihood of achieving this outcome.
Demographics of Respondents
The respondents comprised 43,183 females (43.5%) and 56,172 males (56.5%). Regarding religious representation, Christians made up 68,804 (69.3%), Muslims accounted for 24,512 (24.7%), and 6,039 (6.1%) identified with other faiths.
Regional contributions to poll outcomes
The report identifies the regions driving support for the two leading candidates
NPP leads in 7 regions
It indicated that the Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions are the leading regions driving the NPP’s 49.1% lead.
NPP leads in 9 regions
Meanwhile, Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the main regions contributing to the NDC’s 45.8%.
Impact of independent candidates
The poll highlighted six competitive independent candidates in constituencies such as Sunyani East, Asante Akyem Central, Asante Akyem North, La-Dade-Kotopon, Suhum, and Agona West. However, none of these candidates secured enough votes to earn a significant impact on the national results.
Prof. Sarpong’s credibility in electoral forecasts
Prof. Sarpong has gained recognition for his accurate electoral predictions.
He previously forecasted the NPP’s first-round victory and the widespread “skirt-and-blouse” voting pattern in the 2020 elections.
Additionally, he accurately predicted the outcomes of the NPP regional elections in the Ashanti Region, the Ejisu by-election, and the recent NPP primaries in Manhyia South, where Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh was selected as Dr. Bawumia’s running mate.
Outlook with 4 weeks to election
With just four weeks left until Election Day, the political landscape appears to favor the NPP, as the comprehensive poll suggests. Dr. Bawumia’s leadership and the NPP’s strategies seem to resonate strongly with voters, increasing the party’s chances of a decisive victory in the first round.
