IMF exposes govt’s fiscal data manipulation-NPP

The Minority New Patriotic Party (NPP) Caucus in Parliament says it feels vindicated following the release of a new Staff Level Agreement between Ghana and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which they argue exposes the current government’s attempts to misrepresent key economic figures.
According to the NPP, the IMF’s latest assessment contradicts claims made by the Finance Minister in the 2025 Budget Statement and proves that the economy was not as mismanaged as portrayed by the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC).
At the center of the Minority’s assertion is the reported primary fiscal deficit on a commitment basis—the fiscal anchor of Ghana’s IMF programme.
The IMF, in its Staff Level Agreement, placed this figure at 3.25% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024.
This contrasts with the 3.9% figure presented by the Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, in the budget.
The 0.65 percentage point discrepancy, according to the NPP, is not just a minor deviation but a clear indication that government officials manipulated fiscal data to suit a political narrative.

Changing the metrics
In a press statement issued by Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam, the Ranking Member on Parliament’s Finance Committee, the Minority took issue not only with the government’s figures but also with what they describe as an unusual departure by the IMF from its previously agreed definitions.
Dr. Adam explained that the IMF Ghana Mission allowed multi-year payables to be counted in the 2024 fiscal balance calculation as if they all occurred within that year.
This, he argued, is inconsistent with the Technical Memorandum of Understanding established at the beginning of the programme, and differs from all previous assessments conducted under the same framework.
Despite this irregularity, Dr. Adam said the Minority is confident that the IMF Executive Board will objectively review the government’s fiscal performance and act in the best interest of transparency and economic recovery.
He added that the figures vindicate the NPP’s stance that the government’s portrayal of economic collapse under the previous administration was politically motivated.

Credit where it is due
The Minority has also dismissed any attempt by the NDC government to claim credit for the positive outcomes recorded in the IMF’s review.
Dr. Adam argued that the fourth review of the IMF programme is based on the end-December 2024 economic performance, which should be attributed squarely to the legacy of the former NPP government.
Once the Staff Level Agreement is approved by the IMF Executive Board, Ghana is expected to receive a disbursement of $370 million.
However, the Minority insists this is the result of the policy groundwork laid by the previous administration.
Dr. Adam further recalled that during his presentation of the 2025 Budget, Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson accused the previous government of breaching IMF targets, specifically in the areas of the primary fiscal balance, accumulated payables, and inflation control.
These accusations, the Minority says, have now been proven unfounded by the Staff Level Agreement.

Programme on track, not renegotiated
Drawing comparisons with the past, Dr. Adam pointed out that in 2016 under an IMF programme, then-President John Mahama’s administration missed nearly all its targets, which forced a renegotiation of the programme.
In contrast, he noted that the current programme has not required any renegotiation and remains on track in line with the original objectives.
This, he argued, is further evidence that the claims of economic mismanagement by the former NPP government were exaggerated and politically charged.

Real sector growth surpasses expectations
According to the IMF’s latest assessment, Ghana’s economy grew more robustly in 2024 than initially anticipated.
Real GDP growth reached 5.7%, far surpassing the original target of 3.1% and even exceeding a revised target of 4%.
The strong performance of the real sector, the report suggests, contributed significantly to the country’s improved economic outlook.
The external sector also showed remarkable results. Ghana closed the year with gross international reserves of $8.9 billion—the highest accumulation on record.
This development, the Minority argues, further contradicts the NDC’s claims of a collapsing economy under the NPP’s stewardship.

Financial sector stability and market performance
The IMF report also pointed to notable gains in the financial sector, which it described as “stabilized.”
Total assets in the sector increased by 33.8% by the end of 2024, while total deposits grew by 28.8%.
Liquidity also improved significantly, with core liquid assets to short-term liabilities increasing by 46.3%.
These indicators, according to the Minority, reinforce their argument that the foundations of Ghana’s economy remain strong.
Ghana’s capital markets also reflected renewed investor confidence, with the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) All Share Index recording a 56.2% year-to-date growth as of December 2024. Profitability ratios were similarly robust.
Return on Assets before tax grew by 5.4% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, while Return on Equity after tax rose by 34.2% in 2023 and 30.8% in 2024.

Debt Sustainability Gains Momentum
Another bright spot in the IMF report is Ghana’s progress toward debt sustainability.
Thanks to successful domestic and external debt restructuring efforts, the country’s Debt-to-GDP ratio fell sharply to 61.8% at the end of 2024, down from 82% at the end of 2022.
This significant drop, the Minority argues, would not have been possible without the policy framework implemented by the previous government.
Despite these positive indicators, the IMF did raise concerns about certain areas of fiscal performance.
Specifically, the Fund noted that accumulated payables and inflation had missed programme targets.
However, the Minority maintains that these shortcomings do not undermine the overall strength of the programme.

A narrative discredited
In conclusion, Dr. Amin Adam said the Staff Level Agreement not only reflects the relative success of the IMF programme under the previous administration but also discredits the government’s attempt to manipulate fiscal data for political gain.
He emphasized that the data confirms what the Minority had long suspected—that the NDC government was exaggerating the country’s economic challenges to score political points.