Finance
IMF experts propose how to respond to stronger dollar
The dollar is at its highest level since 2000, having appreciated 22 percent against the yen, 13 percent against the Euro and 6 percent against emerging market currencies since the start of this year.
Such a sharp strengthening of the dollar in a matter of months has sizable macroeconomic implications for almost all countries, given the dominance of the dollar in international trade and finance.
While the US share in world merchandise exports has declined from 12 percent to 8 percent since 2000, the dollar’s share in world exports has held around 40 percent. For many countries fighting to bring down inflation, the weakening of their currencies relative to the dollar has made the fight harder. On average, the estimated pass-through of a 10 percent dollar appreciation into inflation is 1 percent. Such pressures are especially acute in emerging markets, reflecting their higher import dependency and greater share of dollar-invoiced imports compared with advanced economies.
The dollar’s appreciation also is reverberating through balance sheets around the world. Approximately half of all cross-border loans and international debt securities are denominated in US dollars. While emerging market governments have made progress in issuing debt in their own currency, their private corporate sectors have high levels of dollar-denominated debt. As world interest rates rise, financial conditions have tightened considerably for many countries. A stronger dollar only compounds these pressures, especially for some emerging market and many low-income countries that are already at a high risk of debt distress.
In these circumstances, should countries actively support their currencies? Several countries are resorting to foreign exchange interventions. Total foreign reserves held by emerging market and developing economies fell by more than 6 percent in the first seven months of this year.
The appropriate policy response to depreciation pressures requires a focus on the drivers of the exchange rate change and on signs of market disruptions. Specifically, foreign exchange intervention should not substitute for warranted adjustment to macroeconomic policies. There is a role for intervening on a temporary basis when currency movements substantially raise financial stability risks and/or significantly disrupt the central bank’s ability to maintain price stability.
As of now, economic fundamentals are a major factor in the appreciation of the dollar: rapidly rising US interest rates and a more favorable terms-of-trade—a measure of prices for a country’s exports relative to its imports—for the US caused by the energy crisis. Fighting a historic increase in inflation, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a rapid tightening path for policy interest rates. The European Central Bank, while also facing broad-based inflation, has signaled a shallower path for their policy rates, out of concern that the energy crisis will cause an economic downturn. Meanwhile, low inflation in Japan and China has allowed their central banks to buck the global tightening trend.
The massive terms-of-trade shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the second major driver behind the dollar’s strength. The euro area is highly reliant on energy imports, in particular natural gas from Russia. The surge in gas prices has brought its terms of trade to the lowest level in the history of the shared currency.
As for emerging markets and developing economies beyond China, many were ahead in the global monetary tightening cycle—perhaps in part out of concern about their dollar exchange rate—while commodity exporting EMDEs experienced a positive terms-of-trade shock. Consequently, exchange-rate pressures for the average emerging market economy have been less severe than for advanced economies, and some, such as Brazil and Mexico, have even appreciated.
Given the significant role of fundamental drivers, the appropriate response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust, while using monetary policy to keep inflation close to its target. The higher price of imported goods will help bring about the necessary adjustment to the fundamental shocks as it reduces imports, which in turn helps with reducing the buildup of external debt. Fiscal policy should be used to support the most vulnerable without jeopardizing inflation goals.
Additional steps are also needed to address several downside risks on the horizon. Importantly, we could see far greater turmoil in financial markets, including a sudden loss of appetite for emerging market assets that prompts large capital outflows, as investors retreat to safe assets.
Enhance resilience
In this fragile environment, it is prudent to enhance resilience. Although emerging market central banks have stockpiled dollar reserves in recent years, reflecting lessons learned from earlier crises, these buffers are limited and should be used prudently.
Countries must preserve vital foreign reserves to deal with potentially worse outflows and turmoil in the future. Those that are able should reinstate swap lines with advanced-economy central banks. Countries with sound economic policies in need of addressing moderate vulnerabilities should proactively avail themselves of the IMF’s precautionary lines to meet future liquidity needs. Those with large foreign-currency debts should reduce foreign-exchange mismatches by using capital-flow management or macroprudential policies, in addition to debt management operations to smooth repayment profiles.
In addition to fundamentals, with financial markets tightening, some countries are seeing signs of market disruptions such as rising currency hedging premia and local currency financing premia. Severe disruptions in shallow currency markets would trigger large changes in these premia, potentially causing macroeconomic and financial instability.
In such cases, temporary foreign exchange intervention may be appropriate. This can also help prevent adverse financial amplification if a large depreciation increases financial stability risks, such as corporate defaults, due to mismatches. Finally, temporary intervention can also support monetary policy in the rare circumstances where a large exchange rate depreciation could de-anchor inflation expectations, and monetary policy alone cannot restore price stability.
For the United States, despite the global fallout from a strong dollar and tighter global financial conditions, monetary tightening remains the appropriate policy while US inflation remains so far above target. Not doing so would damage central bank credibility, de-anchor inflation expectations, and necessitate even more tightening later—and greater spillovers to the rest of the world.
That said, the Fed should keep in mind that large spillovers are likely to spill back into the US economy. In addition, as a global provider of the world’s safe asset, the US could reactivate currency swap lines to eligible countries, as it extended at the start of the pandemic, to provide an important safety valve in times of currency market stress. These would usefully complement dollar funding provided by the Fed’s standing Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility.
The IMF will continue to work closely with our members to craft appropriate macroeconomic policies in these turbulent times, relying on our Integrated Policy Framework. Beyond precautionary financing facilities available for eligible countries, the IMF stands ready to extend our lending resources to member countries experiencing balance of payments problems.
Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (IMF)
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Vice-President of the United States of America Kamala Harris pledged the commitment of her country to engage the Paris Club of behalf of Ghana which is seeking debt forgiveness as part of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) balance of payment support.
According to her, the US will help Ghana with all the support it needs to ensure that it scales through its current economic crisis.
US fully support Ghana’s engagement with IMF
She indicated that the US is fully in support of Ghana’s engagement with the IMF and will push for debt reduction by the country’s bilateral creditors.
Biden administration to push for meaningful debt reduction
She insisted that the Biden administration “will continue to push for all bilateral creditors to provide meaningful debt reduction for countries that needed including Ghana.”
“We must work together as an international community to ease the debt burden that is facing far too many countries,” she added.
Joint Press Conference
The US Vice-President announced this at a joint Press Conference with President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, at Jubilee House, Accra, after closed door discussions.
3-day state visit
Harris, who arrived in Ghana on Sunday for a three-day state visit, is on a week-long trip on the African continent that would take her to Tanzania and Zambia.
US pledges support for economic recovery
She expressed the commitment of US to supporting Ghana to revamp its post-COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict impacted economy.
“We welcome Ghana’s commitment to reform its economy for sustainable and inclusive growth. “We support Ghana’s engagement with the IMF, and we will continue to push all bilateral creditors to provide meaningful debt reduction for countries that need it.
“It is critical to do so to build long-term economic growth and prosperity and to increase US investments. Our partnership is already strong, and I believe that today we have strengthened it,” she stated.Harris believes this will enable Ghana successfully negotiate the bailout it is seeking from the IMF.
Factors that adversely affected Ghana’s macroeconomy
The COVID-19 pandemic, rising global food prices, rising crude oil and energy prices; and the Russia-Ukraine war adversely affected Ghana’s macroeconomy, with spillovers to the financial sector.
Combination of adverse external shocks
The combination of adverse external shocks had exposed Ghana to a surge in inflation, a large exchange rate depreciation and stress on the financing of the budget, which taken together have put public debt on an unsustainable path.
$54bn total public debt stock
Ghana’s total public debt stock stands at $54 billion, out of which $28 billion is owed to foreign creditors.
Ghana owes China $1.9bn
Out of Ghana’s $8.5 billion bilateral loans, about $1.9 billion is owed to China.
$3bn staff-level agreement reached in December 2022
In December 2022, the government reached a staff-level agreement with the fund and is now left with board-level approval before it can access the $3 billion support.
America’s investment in wellbeing and prosperity of people
Harris assured that the US stands by its commitment to building on existing relations with Ghana, and working together to advance America’s investment in the wellbeing, health and prosperity of the people,” she stated.
US resident advisor to assist Finance Ministry
According to her, the Department of Treasury’s Office of Technical Assistance (OTA) will deploy a full-time resident advisor to assist the Ministry of Finance to develop and execute medium-to-long-term reforms needed to improve debt sustainability and support a competitive, dynamic government debt market.
Building on debt restructuring efforts
The project, according to the USA will complement and build on Ghana’s debt restructuring efforts.
To further support Ghana’s debt management, USAID is funding fellowships for a team of ten specialists to work within the Ministry of Finance, providing surge support for a two-year period.
The Fellows are all young, qualified Ghanaians and recent university graduates.
Strengthening public financial management
This project is part of OTA’s ongoing engagement to strengthen public financial management and financial sector oversight across sub-Saharan Africa.
For 2023, OTA will execute 25 projects in 15 African countries.
This includes eight new projects in Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia, Tanzania, The Gambia, and Zambia in revenue policy and administration; budget and financial accountability; government debt issuance and infrastructure financing; banking and financial services; and economic crimes.
$100m to fight violent extremism and instability
The US Vice-President also announced the US government plans to commit $100 million support package for Ghana, Benin, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire and Togo, as part of efforts to promote stability in the sub-Region.
At least $86 million in funding over three years will specifically be dedicated to the implementation of the new 10-year plan.
The package forms part of President Joe Biden’s strategy to cushion the beneficiary countries financially to address violent extremism and instability.
The package, the U.S., Vice President explained, complemented an earlier strategic plan announced by President Joe Biden, for coastal West Africa, to prevent conflict and promote stability.
Harris praises President Nana Akufo-Addo
Harris praised President Nana Akufo-Addo for his leadership in response to recent democratic backsliding in West Africa and standing up for democratic principles around the world.
“Under your leadership, Ghana has been a beacon of democracy and a contributor to global peace and security,”
“Your leadership in particular and personal engagement have strengthened the ties between the diaspora and the continent. President Joe Biden and I are grateful to have you as a partner,” she said.
Strengthening partnerships across the African continent
The US Vie-President said the United States was strengthening partnerships across the African continent and “we are guided not by what we can do for Africa, but by what we can do with Africa and African partners on this continent.”
African voices critical to global peace and security
With African nations playing significant roles in global issues such as food security, climate crisis and resilient supply chains, she stressed that African voices, including that of Ghana, “are critical to global peace and security, including the defence of the United Nations charter.”
President Akufo-Addo says meeting was successful
President Akufo-Addo described his meeting with the US Vice-President as “successful,” as both sides reaffirmed the commitment to collaborate further and provide mutual support at both bilateral and multilateral levels.
He said Harris pledged America’s support for Ghana’s transformative agenda, adding, “it is this transformation that would give us the best opportunity to derive maximum benefit from our abundant natural resources and enable us to create a firmer foundation for a meaningful long-term economic and commercial relations with the United States of America.”
The President said Ghana will continue to collaborate with the US at all levels towards the peaceful resolution of conflicts and in the search for global peace and security to promote sustainable development and growth
“My meeting with the US Vice-President this afternoon has further boosted the steadfast cooperation between the two countries,” he affirmed.
He pointed out that although he was concerned about terror groups, he had no formal confirmation that al-Qaida was present in Ghana.
On a question on the operations of the Russian mercenary force, Wagner, in the region, President Akufo-Addo said he worried that the group could expand its footprint in West Africa.
“It raises the very real possibility that once again our continent is going to become the playground for a great power conflict,” Akufo-Addo said.
The President also rejected concerns about China’s influence in the region, insisting that Ghana’s relations with were separate from one another, and said the ties with America “is a relationship that has been close over several decades.”
Ghana determined to add value to its abundant natural resources
President Akufo-Addo said the country was determined to add value to its abundant natural resources in order to lift the economy from dependence on foreign aid to a self-reliant one.
Harris inspects a guard of honour
On her arrival at the Jubilee House, Harris inspected a guard of honour mounted by the Ghana Airforce, and took the national salute, whilst a 21-gun salute boomed in the background.
President Akufo-Addo met her at the foyer of the Presidency, where the two exchanged pleasantries and retired to the ceremonial room for a tete-a-tete.
Both parties reaffirmed the strengthening of the relations and long-standing ties between the peoples of Ghana and the United States and affirmed their resolves to bolster those bonds of friendship and cooperation.
The two leaders, with their delegations, held bilateral talks, where discussions centred on a range of global and regional issues, including democracy, good governance, and human rights; regional security; long-term economic growth and macroeconomic stability.
Harris and her husband, Douglas Emhoff, were hosted at a State Banquet at the Jubilee House by President Akufo-Addo in the evening.
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Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta, has disclosed that Ghana has made significant progress in its discussions for debt treatment with the Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.
Official Creditor Committee
According to him, the Paris Club, together with other creditors including China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have agreed to form an Official Creditor Committee (OCC) on Ghana.
IMF Executive Board approval possible in May
He revealed that the Committee plans to deliver financing assurances to the International monetary Fund (IMF) as soon as possible to clear the path for an IMF Executive Board approval of Ghana’s programme by early May.
Positive engagements with China and Paris Club
Disclosing the outcome of engagements with China and Paris Club last week, Mr Ofori-Atta said discussions with the Chinese government on the country’s debt restructuring programme have been positive.
China to Co-chair the Official Creditor Committee
Mr Ofori-Atta, who led a high level government delegation made up of technical officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Bank of Ghana. to China last week, also requested for China to Co-chair the Official Creditor Committee.
$54bn total public debt stock
Ghana’s total public debt stock stands at $54 billion, out of which $28 billion is owed to foreign creditors.
Ghana owes China $1.9bn
Out of Ghana’s $8.5 billion bilateral loans, about $1.9 billion is owed to China.
$3bn staff-level agreement reached in December 2022
In December 2022, the government reached a staff-level agreement with the fund and is now left with board-level approval before it can access the $3 billion support.
Ghana seeking extension of maturities, debt servicing, lower interest rates
Information indicates that Ghana is seeking among other reliefs, an extension of the moratorium on debt servicing; an extension of maturities; and lower interest rates.
China expresses confidence in management of Ghana’s economy
The Finance Minister of China, Mr. Liu Kun, on his part said that his country has confidence in the management of the Ghanaian economy, and that his country felt a responsibility to be of help as Ghana seeks debt servicing relief.
At a meeting in Beijing, Mr. Kun said the Chinese authorities “have confidence in Ghana’s economic management and its long term economic viability.”
Expeditious treatment of Ghana’s request
Mr. Kun said he wanted to ensure that Ghana’s external debt treatment request was considered expeditiously and was thus accompanied to the meeting with Mr. Ofori-Atta by a high level delegation including Mr. Wu Fuli, Chairman of China Exim-Bank.
Committed to resolving challenges
Minister Kun said: “We know that these are short-term challenges which we, as responsible creditors, remain committed to resolving.”
Long standing and prosperous relationship
“The long standing and prosperous relationship between Ghana and China imposes on us a responsibility to help,” the Chinese Finance minister added.
Exogenous forces impacting Ghana’s economy
He said that just like other African countries, Ghana was facing economic difficulties from a once in a lifetime pandemic, geopolitical tensions and interest rates hikes in advanced countries with a contagion effect on developing countries.
The Chinese officials committed to help Ghana resolve the current short-term liquidity challenges and continue to support Ghana’s medium and long-term development aspirations.
China to push for more concessional and grant funding for Ghana
They said China believed in promoting debt sustainability and sustainable development, and would advocate for more concessional and grant funding for Ghana, especially at this time.
Multilateral Banks should do more for Ghana
“Ghana needs more concessional and grant fund from creditors,” said Mr. Zhang Wencai, Vice-President of China Exim bank, adding that “the Multilateral Banks should therefore do more for Ghana.”
Revenue bills in parliament
This week, all eyes are on Ghana’s parliament which will consider three key revenue measures whose approval is expected to rake in GH₵4.4 billion in domestic revenues.
It is one of the major actions on the part of Ghana, critical to trigger IMF Executive Board approval of a $3 billion facility for the country to ease its current economic difficulties.
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Parliament is expected to vote today on the Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, Excise Duty and Excise Tax Stamp (Amendment) Bills as well as the Growth and Sustainability Levy Bill.
Passage will facilitate IMF Executive Board approval
Approval of these outstanding revenue mobilisation bills will facilitate the approval of $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) Programme staff level agreement by the Executive Board of the Fund.
Passage to increase Tax-to-GDP from 13% to 18%
The passage of all the outstanding revenue bills which are necessary for effective budget implementation as well as boosting efforts at increasing Tax-to- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from less than 13% to the sub-Saharan average of 18%.
4th agreed Prior Actions in the Staff Level Agreement
The passage of the bills will enable government to complete four out of five agreed Prior Actions in the Staff Level Agreement.
3 agreed Prior Actions in the Staff Level Agreement fulfilled
Already, government has completed tariff adjustment by the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC), Publication of the Auditor-General’s Report on COVID-19 spending, as well as onboarding of Ghana Education Trust Fund (GETFund), District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF) and Road Fund on the Ghana integrated financial management information system (GIFMIS).
No access to international capital market
The international and domestic bond markets are shut for the financing of government’s programmes, forcing government to rely on the Treasury Bills and concessional loans as the primary sources of financing for the 2023 fiscal year.
Bills critical for recovery from current economic crisis
Therefore, consideration and approval of fiscal measures by Parliament are critical for recovery from the current economic crisis.
Fiscal sustainability of economy
Director of Revenue Policy Division of the Ministry of Finance George Swanzy Winful, explained that the Growth and Sustainability Levy is to raise revenue for growth and fiscal sustainability of the economy.
Bridging financing gap
This, he said, was necessary to bridge the financing gap created by COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war.
Growth and Sustainability Levy to apply from 2023 to 2025
He hinted that Growth and Sustainability Levy is a temporal measure expected to apply from 2023 to 2025 to help correct the imbalances being experienced.
Replacement for National Fiscal Stabilisation Levy
Mr Winful explained that Growth and Sustainability Levy replaces the National Fiscal Stabilisation Levy (NFSL).
According to him, the National Fiscal Stabilisation Levy (NFSL) was being charged on 11 companies but the Growth and Sustainability Levy will apply to all companies.
Serious consequences of not passing the bills
He cautioned that if the bills are not passed, government will be forced to review revenue estimates which will have serious consequences on public funds.
The Director of Revenue Policy Division of Ministry of Finance explained that government has indicated revenue mobilization plans to IMF which includes the outstanding bills.
Therefore, he said failure to pass the bills will exacerbate an already difficult financial position of the country
He pointed out that the country is in extra ordinary times and appealed to the Members of Parliament to pass the outstanding bills today.
Mr Winful pledged that the Ministry of Finance will deepen stakeholder engagements to address concerns of the public.
Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2022
The object of the Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2022 is to amend the Income Tax Act, 2015 (Act 896) to revise the rates of income tax for individuals and introduce an additional income tax bracket.
It will introduce a withholding tax rate on the realisation of assets and liabilities and on winnings from lottery, unify the loss carried forward provisions and revise the treatment of foreign exchange losses.
The Bill will also increase the optional rate for individuals on the gain from the realisation of an investment asset, revise the upper limits for the quantification of motor vehicle benefits and increase the concessional income tax rates.
The individual personal income tax bands have been reviewed to accommodate the minimum wage for 2023 as the basic tax free income and an additional band at 35% as part of the high net worth taxation policy.
The upper limits for quantification of motor vehicle benefits have not been revised since 2015.
Government has therefore revised these upper limits to account for inflation.
Compliance with the requirements for payment of tax on realisation of assets and liabilities is being made more efficient with the introduction of a return to be submitted within 30 days of the realisation and a withholding tax.
The optional tax rate for individuals on the gain from realisations has also been increased.
The rate for income from gifts will also be increased as a consequential amendment.
The loss carried forward provisions are being unified at five percent while the treatment of foreign exchange gains is being restricted to actual losses.
Foreign exchange losses relating to capital expenditure is also to be capitalised.
The income tax rates for temporary concessions are being reviewed upwards with the intent to gradually phase them out.
These amendments are considered necessary to support the growing economy and will lead to a revenue yield of approximately GH₵1.290 billion.
Excise Duty (Amendment) Bill, 2022
The object of the Excise Duty (Amendment) Bill, 2022 is to amend the Excise Duty Act, 2014 (Act 878) to revise the excise tax rates for cigarettes and other tobacco products to conform with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Protocols and raise revenue to mitigate the harmful effects of these excisable products.
The Bill will increase the excise duty in respect of wine, malt drinks and spirits; and impose excise duty on sweetened beverages and electronic cigarettes and electronic liquids to increase revenue.
The ECOWAS directive on the harmonisation of excise duties on tobacco products directs that the excise duty on tobacco products must include an ad valorem duty and a specific duty.
Specifically, the ad valorem rate is required to be 50% or more while the specific tax is required to be the minimum equivalent of $0.02 per stick in the case of cigarette, cigar and cigarillo and the cedi equivalent of $20 per net kilogramme for all other tobacco products.
The Bill also seeks to amend Act 878 to implement this Directive in line with Ghana being a member of ECOWAS.
There has been an increase in the use of electronic cigarettes and other smoking devices over the last decade.
Currently, these products do not attract excise duty, but Excise duty will be imposed on these products as the nicotine and other chemicals used as additives are also harmful.
Apart from mineral waters and malt drinks, all other sweetened beverages, including processed fruit juices do not attract excise duty.
The Bill amends Act 878 to impose excise duties on these products and increase the excise duty on mineral waters and malt drinks.
Spirits have a higher alcohol content compared to beer but the excise duty on spirits is lower than that of beer.
To address this, the excise duty on spirits is being raised above that of beer in accordance with good practice on the imposition of excise duties.
Consequentially, the excise duty on wines has been reviewed upwards.
For ease of reference and the record, the descriptions of the various products are being revised to conform to the World Customs Organisation Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System.
The Bill amends Act 878 by substituting the First Schedule with a new Schedule.
The rationale for the amendment is to revise the excise tax rates for cigarettes and other tobacco products to align with the ECOWAS Protocols and impose new excise tax rates on sweetened beverages.
The passage of the Bill will yield approximately GH₵450 million.
Growth and Sustainability Levy
The object of the Bill is to impose a special levy to be known as the Growth and Sustainability Levy to raise revenue for growth and fiscal sustainability of the economy.
The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic led to a significant reduction in revenues and increased expenditure enormously.
The double jeopardy of the Russian-Ukraine war has also resulted in unprecedented global crises, depreciation in currencies and impacted living conditions and inflation levels.
The Ghanaian economy has not been spared these shocks.
Further interventions are required to raise additional revenue for national development and social protection for the vulnerable.
The introduction of the Growth and Sustainability Levy is part of Government’s efforts to raise funds for carrying out these interventions.
The Levy is to be imposed on profit before tax of the companies and institutions and on· production in the case of mining, upstream oil and gas companies specified in the first column of the Schedule.
The estimated revenue for 2023 is approximately GH₵2.216 billion.
The Levy is subject to review by the Minister responsible for Finance in 2025.
- Work begins on major policy for downstream aluminum industry – 29 March 2023
- MTN cuts sod for $25m ‘Ghana ICT Hub’ – 28 March 2023
- Dr Addison appeals to MPs to prioritize revenue bills – 28 March 2023
Work begins on major policy for downstream aluminum industry
MTN cuts sod for $25m ‘Ghana ICT Hub’
Dr Addison appeals to MPs to prioritize revenue bills
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