In a detailed analysis of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) electoral prospects for the upcoming 2024 elections, Former Afigya Kwabre South Constituency Chairman, Chairman Odeneho Kwaku Appiah, popularly known as COKA, emphasized the critical role of the Ashanti Region in the party’s political fortunes.
The comprehensive analysis of Ghana’s political landscape and a retrospective examination of past elections revealed intriguing patterns and trends that have significantly influenced the fortunes of the major political parties.
The analysis also shed light on the delicate balance in the Ashanti Region, considered a political stronghold for the NPP.
He highlighted the correlation between NPP’s success and maintaining substantial votes in the Ashanti Region
COKA’s analysis emphasized the delicate balance in the Ashanti Region’s electoral dynamics.
He reiterated that “It is a known fact that the Ashanti Region is the political World Bank (base) of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).”
COKA believes that if the NPP is to break the 8-year political cycle, the groundwork in the Ashanti Region must be at its highest.
Therefore, the running mate should be a “resourceful and charismatic” individual to rejuvenate the party’s base and also to “counter the NDC and Alan Kyerematen’s butterfly movement shenanigans in the region.
Historical election data
He delved into historical election data, dating back to 1996, highlighting the Ashanti Region’s unwavering support for the NPP.
He pointed out that the NPP has consistently secured significant victories in the region, citing percentages ranging from 65.8% to 77% in various elections.
COKA acknowledged the Ashanti Region as a target for the NDC and Alan Kyerematen’s butterfly movement, emphasizing the need for strategic planning to maintain dominance.
He explained, “Anytime the NDC appreciates votes in the region (above 28%) and NPP depreciates votes in the region (below 71%), the party (NPP) finds itself in trouble (opposition).”
He cautioned that any depreciation of votes below 71% in the region could spell trouble for the NPP, especially if the NDC gains ground with votes above 28%.
In the 1996 elections, the NPP had 65.8%, and the NDC had 32.8%, resulting in an NDC victory.
In the 2000 elections, the NPP secured 74.8%, while the NDC obtained 22.5%, leading to an NPP win.
The 2004 elections saw the NPP with 77%, and the NDC with 21.8%, resulting in another victory for the NPP.
In the 2008 elections, the NPP obtained 72.5%, and the NDC had 26%. Although the NPP led in the first round, they lost to the NDC in a runoff.
The 2012 elections had the NPP with 70.9%, and the NDC with 28.4%, leading to an NDC win. In 2016, the NPP secured 76.3%, while the NDC received 23%, resulting in an NPP victory.
The 2020 election was particularly interesting, as the NPP garnered 71.6%, and the NDC received 26%, yet the NPP emerged victorious.
Moreover, COKA pointed out a broader electoral trend that affects parties seeking a third consecutive win.
He noted a consistent 2% or 3% apathy and a drop in votes, particularly in their strongholds.
This phenomenon poses a challenge for any party in government aiming for an extended tenure
The seasoned politician also drew attention to Vice-President Dr. Bawumia’s historic position as the first Northern flag bearer of the NPP, highlighting the party’s increased need to secure its southern stronghold, particularly in the Ashanti Region.
COKA proposed a strategic move for the NPP to break the eight-year political cycle, suggesting that the running mate for the flagbearer of Northern descent should be from the south, specifically the Ashanti Region.
He emphasized the importance of selecting a “resourceful and charismatic” individual to counter the perceived threats posed by the NDC and Alan Kyerematen’s butterfly movement in the region.
The seasoned politician concluded that for the NPP to secure victory in 2024, meticulous groundwork in the Ashanti Region is essential.
His analysis underscored the significance of understanding electoral trends and countering opposition movements, urging the party to be vigilant in maintaining its stronghold in the political world bank of the Ashanti Region.
As Ghana prepares for the 2024 elections, these insights from historical data provide valuable considerations for political strategists and analysts navigating the complex terrain of Ghana’s democratic processes.
The interplay of regional dynamics, historical trends, and voter sentiments will undoubtedly shape the strategies of political parties in the upcoming electoral battle.