Cedi’s Paradox: 4th in Africa, losing ground at home
Prof. Samuel Lartey
A currency can look impressive on a continental league table while becoming less valuable in the wallets of its citizens. Ghana’s cedi illustrates this contradiction. An October 2026 comparison placed it fourth among selected African currencies by the number of local units exchanged for one US dollar. Yet that position says little about purchasing power, currency resilience or economic prosperity.
Ghana’s cedi may be celebrating its position as Africa’s fourth highest valued currency against the US dollar, but its continued depreciation raises a fundamental economic question: what is the value of international currency prestige when businesses, investors and households still face exchange rate uncertainty, rising import costs and persistent financial pressures?
Understanding the Ranking
The reported comparison placed Tunisia’s dinar at 2.98 per dollar, Libya’s dinar at 6.39, Morocco’s dirham at 9.81, Ghana’s cedi at 11.58 and Botswana’s pula at 13.76. These are nominal unit prices, not a scientifically meaningful ranking of economic strength. Currency denominations differ across countries. Inflation, productivity, foreign reserves and exchange rate movements offer more useful evidence of performance. The same exchange rate can coexist with very different living standards and fiscal conditions, making simple currency league tables particularly misleading for economic policy.
| Currency | Local units per US$1, October 2026 |
| Tunisian dinar | 2.98 |
| Libyan dinar | 6.39 |
| Moroccan dirham | 9.81 |
| Ghanaian cedi | 11.58 |
| Botswana pula | 13.76 |
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The Bank of Ghana recorded GH¢11.6600 per dollar on 3 November 2026, compared with the ranking’s October snapshot of GH¢11.58. Its October investor bulletin reported 40.7 per cent cedi appreciation during 2025, followed by 6.58 per cent depreciation through September 2026. Relative to the reported end December 2025 rate of GH¢10.45, the November rate implies approximately 10.4 percent erosion in the cedi’s dollar purchasing value. This calculation differs from the percentage increase in cedis required to buy a dollar, approximately 11.6 percent.
The Fiscal and Economic Consequences
Exchange rate depreciation raises the cedi cost of dollar obligations. Illustratively, a US$10 million import bill costs GH¢104.5 million at GH¢10.45 per dollar but GH¢116.6 million at GH¢11.66, an additional GH¢12.1 million before taxes or charges. The government faces similar pressure on foreign currency debt service, imported equipment and public procurement. Exporters may earn more cedis, although imported inputs can absorb those gains. A persistent depreciation can also complicate debt sustainability calculations, since dollar liabilities translate into larger cedi balances even without fresh borrowing. Policymakers must therefore scrutinise exchange rate assumptions when preparing annual budgets and medium-term fiscal frameworks.
Who Bears the Consequences?
The consequences extend beyond currency dealers. Businesses must revise inventory prices and working capital budgets. Investors examine exchange rate predictability and their ability to repatriate returns. Households confront potentially higher costs for fuel, medicines, transport and school supplies, especially where import dependence is substantial. However, retail prices also reflect taxes, competition and domestic supply conditions, so depreciation does not translate mechanically into equal price increases. A predictable exchange rate can be more valuable to business planning than a temporarily favourable quoted rate. Sudden movements create uncertainty over contracts, profit margins and import replacement decisions.
The Policy Response
- Government should publish transparent foreign currency debt exposures, control spending pressures and accelerate export diversification.
- The Bank of Ghana should sustain credible monetary policy, adequate reserve buffers and transparent foreign exchange communication.
- Businesses should hedge feasible currency exposures, deepen local sourcing and prepare realistic cash flow scenarios.
- Investors and households should distinguish nominal rankings from inflation-adjusted returns and practical purchasing power.
Conclusion
Ghana should welcome improving external confidence without confusing a flattering ranking with lasting currency strength. The real national achievement will be a cedi whose value is sufficiently predictable for farmers to invest, businesses to price confidently, government to budget responsibly and families to plan their futures. Africa’s currency league table may capture attention; economic stability must deliver the benefit.
