Investor appetite for government Treasury bills slumped sharply in the latest auction on the Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM), with total bids dropping from GH₵6.51 billion in the previous week to GH₵2.93 billion.
The government’s target of GH₵6.58 billion was undersubscribed by 55.5%, signaling weakening investor demand for short-term securities.
According to data released from the auction, 99.76% of bids for the 91-day Treasury bill, 99.29% for the 182-day bill, and 80.62% for the 364-day bill were accepted.
Despite the undersubscription, yields on all tenors edged up slightly.
The 91-day bill rate rose by 17 basis points to 10.70%, the 182-day bill by 13 basis points to 12.44%, and the 364-day bill by 5 basis points to 12.92%.
Analysts attribute the reduced demand to tighter liquidity conditions in the market and a shift in investor sentiment as the cedi continues to strengthen against major currencies, improving the attractiveness of cedi-denominated assets in the secondary market.
Secondary market gains momentum
Trading activity on the secondary market, however, showed notable improvement.
GFIM’s weekly trading volume surged by 22.8% to GH₵7.9 billion.
The uptick was driven largely by active trading in Bank of Ghana (BoG) Bills, which accounted for 37.43% of the total volume.
New Government of Ghana (GoG) Bonds followed with 30.55%, while Sell-Buy-Back trades represented 20.32% of the total.
Corporate bonds contributed 9.54%, Treasury bills 2.13 percent, and old GoG notes and bonds just 0.02%.
Market watchers say the increase in trading activity reflects renewed investor interest in medium- to long-term securities amid expectations of stable interest rates and stronger fiscal discipline by the government.
Cedi strengthens sharply against major currencies
On the currency front, the Ghana cedi recorded remarkable gains across major foreign currencies.
Against the U.S. dollar, the local unit appreciated by 13.69%, closing the week at GH₵10.70 per dollar on the interbank market.
Year-to-date, the cedi has appreciated by an impressive 37.38% against the greenback.
The cedi also appreciated by 13.18% against the British pound to end the week at GH₵14.36, representing a 28.17% gain since the beginning of the year.
Similarly, it strengthened by 13.22% against the euro, closing at GH₵12.49, with a year-to-date appreciation of 21.82%.
Indicative open market rates showed even stronger performance, with midrates closing at GH₵10.50 to the dollar, GH₵14.08 to the pound, and GH₵12.25 to the euro.
The cedi’s rally has been supported by strong foreign exchange inflows from remittances, gold and cocoa exports, as well as the Bank of Ghana’s gold-for-reserves and FX forward interventions.
Stock market maintains upward momentum
The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) continued its bullish performance during the review period, as the GSE Composite Index appreciated by 0.08% to close the week at 8,495.93 points, yielding a robust year-to-date return of 73.79%.
The gains were driven by strong performances in several equities including Cocoa Processing Company (CPC), Fan Milk Limited (FML), SIC Insurance (SIC), Société Générale Ghana (SOGEGH), Guinness Ghana Breweries (GGBL), and Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).
CPC led the charge with a 33.33 percent increase to close at GH₵0.04, marking a 100 percent gain year-to-date.
FML surged 25.21 percent to GH₵7.50 (YTD: 102.70%), SIC gained 13.21 percent to GH₵1.20 (YTD: 344.44%), SOGEGH rose 11 percent to GH₵2.32 (YTD: 47.77%), GGBL advanced 9.82 percent to GH₵6.60 (YTD: 20%), and ETI climbed 8.70 percent to GH₵1.00 (YTD: 222.58%).
However, some blue-chip stocks lost ground. TotalEnergies Ghana fell marginally by 0.25 percent to GH₵4.50 (YTD: 208.69%), Access Bank Ghana dipped by 0.86 percent to GH₵16.20 (YTD: 211.54%), MTN Ghana declined by 2.22 percent to GH₵4.40 (YTD: 76%), while NewGold ETF dropped 4.09 percent to GH₵448.56 (YTD: 14.87%).
Trading volumes fell significantly by 63.3 percent, from 18.15 million shares in the previous week to 6.66 million shares.
total value traded stood at GH₵25.8 million.
Market analysts anticipate that financial and ICT stocks will play leading roles in sustaining the index’s performance in the coming weeks, as investors rebalance portfolios toward high-performing sectors ahead of the year-end.
Outlook
The week’s developments paint a mixed picture for Ghana’s financial markets — declining primary market demand, rising secondary activity, a strong local currency, and a resilient stock market.
While the undersubscription of Treasury bills signals tighter liquidity and investor caution, the broader market indicators suggest growing confidence in the economy’s medium-term prospects, underpinned by fiscal consolidation, currency stability, and improving macroeconomic fundamentals.
As one analyst noted, “The shift in investor focus from short-term T-bills to longer-dated bonds and equities reflects optimism that the worst of Ghana’s financial volatility is behind us.”
The coming weeks will reveal whether that confidence holds — or whether the sharp decline in T-bill demand is a sign of new caution among investors.
