Government plans to spend GH¢375 billion in 2027, targeting real GDP growth of at least 5.2 per cent, as it seeks to expand infrastructure, services and agriculture while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson announced the projections in Parliament on Thursday during the presentation of the 2027 Budget Statement and Economic Policy, themed The New Economy, New Ghana, Jobs and Prosperity. The total appropriation for the year ending December 31, 2027, is GH¢420.86 billion.

The government is also targeting non-oil real GDP growth of at least 5.7 per cent and end-year inflation of 8 per cent.

The targets point to an effort to broaden growth beyond oil and continue easing price pressures on households.

If achieved, lower inflation could help protect purchasing power, while stronger non-oil growth could reflect a wider contribution from domestic businesses and producers.

Revenue and spending

Total revenue and grants are projected to rise to GH¢323.1 billion, from GH¢274 billion in 2026.

The government expects non-oil revenue measures to generate at least 0.5 per cent of GDP. Revenue and grants are projected to increase from 17.2 per cent of GDP in 2026 to 17.9 per cent in 2027.

Non-oil tax revenue, about 79.2 per cent of total revenue, is forecast at GH¢255.8 billion, an annual increase of 17.4 per cent.

Non-oil non-tax revenue is estimated at GH¢33.5 billion, or about 10.5 per cent of domestic revenue.

Of that, GH¢22.1 billion will be retained by ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs), while GH¢11.4 billion will go to the Consolidated Fund.

The IGF Capping Policy is expected to yield GH¢2.7 billion.

Oil and gas receipts are projected at GH¢15.5 billion. Other revenue, including SSNIT transfers to the National Health Insurance Levy (NHIL) and the Energy Sector Levies Act (ESLA), is expected to total GH¢15.1 billion. Development partner grants are projected at GH¢3.2 billion, equal to 1 per cent of total revenue and grants, and are entirely project-related.

Commitment-based expenditure is budgeted at GH¢375 billion, or 20.8 per cent of GDP—22.8 per cent above the 2026 projection of GH¢305.5 billion, or 19.1 per cent of GDP. Primary expenditure, which excludes interest, is set at GH¢314 billion, or 17.4 per cent of GDP, compared with 15.5 per cent in 2026.

The expenditure plan includes GH¢104.1 billion for employee compensation, equal to 5.7 per cent of GDP, and GH¢14.8 billion for goods and services, or 0.8 per cent.

Grants to other government units, including transfers to earmarked funds, are estimated at GH¢76.7 billion, or 4.2 per cent of GDP.

Interest payments will total GH¢61 billion, or 3.4 per cent of GDP: GH¢51.5 billion domestic and GH¢9.5 billion foreign.

Capital investment and growth

Capital expenditure is projected at GH¢98.4 billion, or 5.4 per cent of GDP.

Domestic financing will provide GH¢86.4 billion, comprising GH¢28.6 billion for MDA-related projects, GH¢27.8 billion for the Big Push programme and GH¢30 billion for New Economy-related projects.

These allocations represent 1.6 per cent, 1.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent of GDP, respectively. Foreign-financed capital spending, mainly project loans and grants, will amount to GH¢12 billion, or 0.7 per cent of GDP.

Other expenditure is estimated at GH¢17.2 billion, or 1 per cent of GDP. It includes ESLA transfers, energy-sector payment shortfalls to independent power producers and transfers to GoldBod for the cost of implementing the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP).

The planned capital spending could support near-term demand and, if projects are completed efficiently, improve infrastructure and productive capacity.

The GH¢30 billion New Economy allocation and Big Push investment are intended to support economic transformation; however, the budget figures alone do not specify how many jobs these projects will create.

Their impact will depend on project delivery, procurement, local participation and whether new infrastructure enables businesses to expand.

Deficits, financing and fiscal targets

On a commitment basis, the overall deficit is projected at GH¢51.9 billion, or 2.9 per cent of GDP, up from 2 per cent in 2026.

The corresponding primary balance is a surplus of GH¢9.1 billion, or 0.5 per cent of GDP. The budget framework says this surplus is consistent with the revised fiscal anchor.

On a cash basis, the deficit is forecast at GH¢65.8 billion, or 3.6 per cent of GDP, while the primary balance is a deficit of GH¢4.8 billion, or 0.3 per cent of GDP.

The difference between the commitment and cash balances means the government’s reported fiscal position depends on which basis is used.

The cash deficit will be financed through a projected net foreign repayment of GH¢17.7 billion, equivalent to 1 per cent of GDP, and GH¢85 billion in domestic financing, or 4.7 per cent of GDP, through long- and short-term government securities.

The government says it will balance financing sources to reduce refinancing risks and deepen the domestic debt market.

The scale of domestic borrowing could support local capital markets, but may also raise borrowing costs or limit credit available to private firms if it absorbs substantial domestic funds.

The government plans to maintain a commitment-based primary surplus of at least 0.5 per cent of GDP each year and hold gross international reserves at no less than six months of import cover.

The fiscal plan aims to create room for priority investment while safeguarding debt sustainability and supporting the cedi.

Policy priorities and outlook

The 2027 priorities include improving tax compliance through the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy, using technology to strengthen tax administration and taxing the digital economy more effectively.

The government also plans to rationalise spending, address leakages, better target social protection, manage debt prudently and strengthen public financial controls, audits and commitment management to prevent arrears.

By 2030, the government is targeting growth of about 8 per cent, unemployment below 8 per cent and progress towards an investment-grade sovereign credit rating.

Achieving these goals will depend on whether revenue gains materialise, spending translates into completed projects and private investment responds to improved infrastructure and financing conditions.

The combination of higher expenditure and borrowing makes effective implementation and transparent reporting central to the plan’s credibility.

Will it induce jobs?

The strongest employment channel is the GH¢98.4 billion in capital spending, including GH¢30 billion for the New Economy programme and GH¢27.8 billion for the Big Push. Infrastructure and industry projects can create construction and supply-chain jobs in the short term, then support longer-term employment if they lower costs and enable businesses to grow.

The GH¢104.1 billion for employee compensation may sustain public-sector jobs, though the budget does not say how much will fund new positions.

The effect will depend on what is built, how quickly projects are completed, and how much work goes to Ghanaian firms and workers.

Capital spending does not automatically translate into lasting jobs: imported equipment, delays, cost overruns or projects with few local suppliers can reduce the domestic employment benefit.

There is also a risk that financing GH¢85 billion domestically could compete with businesses for credit or keep borrowing costs high, limiting private investment and hiring.

The projected commitment-based primary surplus may support fiscal stability, but restraint on spending can also limit job creation if it reduces funding for labour-intensive services or projects.