Government has revised its 2024 macroeconomic framework due to recent domestic and global economic developments, including the debt restructuring programme with external and domestic creditors.
Here are the key revisions:
Macroeconomic Targets
Overall Real GDP Growth Rate: Revised upwards from 2.8% to 3.1%.
Non-Oil Real GDP Growth Rate: Revised upwards from 2.1% to 2.8%.
Growth in GDP Deflator: Scaled down from 20.2% to 17.5%.
Nominal Overall GDP: Revised from GH₵1.05 trillion to GH₵1.02 trillion.
Non-Oil GDP: Revised from GH₵979 billion to GH₵977 billion.
End-Period Headline Inflation: Remains unchanged at 15%.
Gross International Reserves: Expected to cover not less than 3.0 months of imports.
Fiscal Framework
Total Revenue and Grants: Revised upwards by 0.5%, from GH₵176.4 billion (16.8% of GDP) to GH₵177.2 billion (17.4% of GDP). The increase reflects higher Non-Oil Non-Tax Revenue, which has been revised from GH₵14.8 billion (1.4% of GDP) to GH₵15.6 billion (1.5% of GDP), due to dividends from interest accrued in the ESLA accounts.
Total Expenditure on Commitment Basis: Revised downward by 2.1%, from GH₵226.7 billion (21.6% of GDP) to GH₵219.7 billion (21.5% of GDP). The decrease is primarily due to a downward revision in Interest Payments by GH₵7.9 billion, reflecting the impact of the external debt restructuring on external interest payments.
Overall Balance on Commitment Basis: Revised from a deficit of GH₵50.3 billion (4.8% of GDP) to a deficit of GH₵42.5 billion (4.2% of GDP).
Cash Deficit: Expected to be GH₵54.1 billion (5.3% of GDP), to be financed from both foreign and domestic sources.
Net Foreign Financing: Amounts to GH₵15.2 billion (1.5% of GDP), representing 28.1% of the total financing for 2024. This includes disbursements from the second and third tranches of the IMF programme and the World Bank Development Policy Operation (DPO) funding.
Domestic Financing: Amounts to GH₵38.9 billion (3.8% of revised GDP), representing 71.9% of the total financing for 2024, sourced from the issuance of debt at the short end of the domestic market and inflows from Ghana Petroleum Funds.
This revised framework was presented by Dr. Adam, the Minister of Finance, during the Mid-year Budget Review in Parliament.
