The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned that Ghana’s $10 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2025 could be vulnerable to external shocks because of the country’s heavy reliance on gold exports.

ISSER Director, Professor Robert Darko Osei, said Ghana needed to diversify its export base, strengthen manufacturing and improve access to affordable credit if the country was to sustain its economic recovery.

He made the remarks at the launch of the 2025 State of the Ghanaian Economy Report (SGER), where he urged policymakers to use the improved economic conditions to address structural weaknesses in the economy.

Prof. Osei said gold exports accounted for much of the trade surplus recorded in 2025, exposing Ghana to international commodity price movements over which it had limited control.

“The position that we have found ourselves in is being driven by a sector that we do not have significant control over,” he said.

He cautioned that favourable gold prices might not last and called for stronger productive sectors and adequate external reserves to protect the economy against future disruptions.

Export diversification remains urgent

Prof. Osei said the recovery in cocoa exports contributed relatively little to the trade surplus, while manufactured goods continued to account for a small proportion of Ghana’s export earnings.

He noted that manufactured products represented less than six per cent of total exports in 2025, a decline compared with 2024.

He called for targeted interventions to improve the competitiveness of locally manufactured goods and increase domestic processing of natural resources.

According to him, expanding manufacturing and value addition would help Ghana generate more export revenue from a broader range of products instead of depending heavily on gold.

Businesses still face expensive loans

The ISSER director said the country’s macroeconomic performance improved significantly in 2025, with inflation falling from more than 23 per cent in 2024 to 5.4 per cent.

The cedi also recorded significant appreciation, while average bank lending rates declined from more than 30 per cent to approximately 20 per cent.

However, he said the cost of credit remained too high for many businesses to expand production and compete effectively.

“If credit is a binding constraint for private businesses in Ghana, clearly we cannot be competitive,” he said.

He urged policymakers to ensure that monetary stability translated into more affordable financing for businesses, particularly those investing in productive activities.

Prof. Osei also pointed to non-performing loans as a factor keeping borrowing costs high, explaining that banks had to account for potential losses when setting lending rates.

Using a hypothetical non-performing loan rate of 20 per cent, he said a bank lending GH¢100 could face the prospect of failing to recover about GH¢20.

He called for sustained efforts to tackle loan defaults and strengthen the ability of financial institutions to support businesses.

Government urged to sustain fiscal discipline

On public finances, Prof. Osei called for stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, continued fiscal discipline and protection of public investment.

He said the government needed to institutionalise policies that had helped restore fiscal stability while ensuring that the recovery supported domestic production, export growth and private-sector development.

ISSER calls for accountability in mining revenues

Prof. Fred Dzanku, Head of the Economics Division at ISSER, said increased mining revenues had not consistently translated into higher public investment or better social services.

He called for improvements in mineral valuation, production monitoring, tax compliance and revenue administration, as well as greater transparency in the management of mineral proceeds.

Prof. Dzanku said Ghana’s recovery had continued into 2026, although the benefits remained uneven across sectors.

He noted that first-half growth was reported at about 6.1 per cent but was concentrated in fewer sectors than in the previous year.

He also expressed concern that the trade surplus remained heavily dependent on gold receipts as other exports showed signs of deterioration.

NIB pushes for jobs and long-term financing

The Deputy Managing Director in charge of Business and Operations at the National Investment Bank (NIB), Belinda Boamah, called for measures to translate economic stability into productive investment, competitive enterprises and decent jobs, especially for young people.

Delivering her closing remarks as chairperson of the event, she said Ghana needed to manage its mineral wealth transparently and ensure that mining communities received timely transfers.

She also advocated saving during favourable economic periods and taking decisive action against illegal mining to protect the country’s natural resources.

Ms Boamah urged financial institutions to provide affordable, long-term financing to businesses in agriculture, manufacturing and value addition.

She further encouraged policymakers, development partners, the private sector, academia, civil society and the media to use the SGER as an evidence-based resource for policymaking and accountability.

She added that NIB would continue to use such research to guide its lending decisions.